The role of credit default swaps in precipitating the current financial crisis

In november of 2008, when the financial crisis was beginning to unfold, I was enrolled in a course called “banking, finanicial markets and systems”. This was an interesting course taught by Professor PC Narayan. One of the main thesis of professor was that lack of regulation causes high leverage and high risk taking and therefore makes financial markets unstable. I, along with a couple of my classmates, tried to investigate the role of credit default swaps, in precipitating the crisis. We started out with the following idea.

Credit default swaps is a contract in which the buyer makes a series of payments to the seller in exchange for the right to payoff if there is a default in respect of the reference party. The market for credit derivatives became larger than the underlying assets themselves1, and it is often alleged that these instruments catalyzed the meltdown2. The term paper aims at exploring the instrumentality of these instruments in precipitating the current financial crisis.

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  1. Demystifying the Credit Crunch: A Primer and Glossary, July 2008, Arthur D Little, Private equity council, by Jonathan Cheng, Matthew Walsh and Simon Flax of Arthur D. Little’s New York office. Pp 5. []
  2. The Monster That Ate Wall Street, How ‘credit default swaps’—an insurance against bad loans—turned from a smart bet into a killer, by Matthew Philips, newsweek, published Sep 27, 2008, from the magazine issue dated Oct 6, 2008. []

Is election commission’s data on candidates of any use?

In an interesting statistical study that I did with a couple of my 4.0 friends1, we set out to find whether all the data that election commission collects from each candidate has any predictive power on their chances of winning. Our stated objective was:

The election commission of India collects various data on candidates of Lok Sabha elections. This data includes such variables as age, assets, liabilities, number and nature of criminal cases registered against the candidate, educational status etc.

The authors were interested in studying the effects (or the absence thereof) of these variables on the outcome of the election.2

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  1. In IIMB, grade points are awarded for each course out of a max of 4.0. These classmates of mine, Gaurav Pathak and Amit Purohit, could find it with ease! []
  2. Page 4 of the report []

We are like that only

I guess adding “only” for emphasis is part of Indian English. I think we have this emphasis adding words in all Indian languages. Hence it probably is part of the way we think.

Are you coming to the class?
Yeah! I am going there only!

Where do you get this biscuit?
In the same shop only!

Is there any other way to express the same emphasis in English? Or is it like this only?

Busy-ness

Came across this wonderful passage recently when I was reading about Gandhiji.

Gandhi was sworn to punctuality, and his life was governed by the watch to an unusual degree; though it should at once be added that despite keeping to a meticulous schedule for much of his life, Gandhi’s conception of time was never such that it did not allow him to make time for anyone, howsoever high or lowly, who should choose to enter into his life or make demands upon him. That pernicious word ‘busy’,1 with which we all excuse ourselves from the common obligations of humanity, and the onerous company of unwanted relatives, acquaintances, and others who seek to intrude uponour time, was surely no part of Gandhi’s lexicon.23

I guess there is a logical reason for this, notwithstanding the humanitarian one. It is that if you live by your plan, you close your mind to new experiences and in a way to life.

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  1. Emphasis mine []
  2. Emphasis mine []
  3. From ‘Hey Ram’: The Politics of Gandhi’s Last Words, Vinay Lal, Published in Humanscape 8, no. 1 (January 2001):34-38. []

Is homo economicus happy?

Economics is a fascinating subject. The so called dismal science1 has over the years come up with several models and theories that explain “the economy”. At the base of this magnificent edifice, however, lie some shaky assumptions.

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  1. Carlyle and the Racist Origins of the Idea that Economics was “the Dismal Science”, Gavin Kennedy, Professor Emeritus, Heriot-Watt University []

The stupidity of India’s carbon policy

India recently re-affirmed it’s stance on climate change when external affairs minister S M Krishna addressed a round table at the climate change summit organized by the UN. The minister said that India’s carbon emissions will never exceed that of the developed countries in per-capita terms. He also slammed the west for leading “unsustainable lifestyles” that caused the problem.1

In simple terms, India’s stance is “climate change? Ain’t my problem!”.

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  1. India asks developed nations to change their lifestyle, Business Standard, Thursday, Sep 24, 2009 []

Is Telecom Infrastructure?

How do you make money in power, transport and other such “infrastructure” industries? Most likely, by doing what you have to do most efficiently (i.e., at lowest cost).

The case I am interested in is that of telecom industry. Telecom industry is seeing commoditization of its services. Broadband connections, for example, compete on price per bytes moved. Only the most efficient bit-movers would win such a game. Voice operators compete on price per minute. While this seems a little more flexible than the price per byte owing to the fact that bytes required to carry a minute of voice may vary on quality of service and compression, it seems unlikely that operators aren’t already on efficient horizon in these technical aspects. Only mobile-VAS services seem to escape this price-per-unit of bandwidth paradigm. Mobile VAS in India has so far been a small percentage of operators’ revenues.

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